Most of the population growth in Te Hiku will be driven by Māori

The Kaitaia region is about to welcome 1,700 new residents in the coming six years, most will be Māori. The Màori population will be 18,074, up from 16,698 in 2023, this accounts for 80% of the total population increase in the area north of the Mangamuka Gorge. By 2030 the Kaitāia area population will increase to 31,450, up from 29,720 in 2023. Pàkeha and others (not Pacific, Màori or Asian) will increase from 11,570 to 11,590 people - 1% of the total population increase.

Figure 1 Age and sex distribution Kaitaia/Te Hiku area, Māori 2023 and projections to 2030

Aging population and youthful Māori cohort. Kaitāia/Te Hiku has a similar aging population to Whangarei, but with a more extreme top heavy profile due to fewer in the middle age brackets (aged 30 to 50). The Māori population will be predominantly younger.

Figure 2 Age and sex distribution of Kaitaia 2023 and projections to 2030

Areas with the strongest growth for all the population are Rangaunu Harbour and Kaitāia West. For Māori, areas of strongest growth will be Kaitāia West, followed by Rangaunu Harbour and Taumarumaru.