‘Real seniors’ drive population increase for the mid-North

Biggest growth in 80-84 age group. The single biggest age-group increase will be those aged 80-84 years of age - the ‘real seniors’. This is likely to reflect the presence of a strong retirement home industry in the Kerikeri and the surrounding area.

Mid-age and youth age groups decline. Those aged 55 to 59 are the single largest age group to decline, but those aged under 14 will also be fewer. By 2030 the population in the Mid-North area*, will be 48,125, up from 44,930 in 2023. This is a 7% increase. Those aged over 65 years of age will account for 85% of the increase, while those aged under 14 offset the growth by 8%. Pàkeha and those not Pacificia, Màori or Asian will increase from 22,650 to 23,340 people - 22% of the total population increase.

Age and sex distribution of population, Mid-North, 2023 projections to 2030

Tamariki population growth steady while kuia and kaumatua over 65 will contribute significantly. While the tamariki population will remain about the same, the aging population (aged over 65) will account for almost 60% of the increase. The Màori population will be 18,074 in 2030, up from 16,698 in 2023. This is a 8.2% increase over seven years.

Age and sex distribution of population, Māori, Mid-North, 2023 projections to 2030

Kerikeri South to growth significantly. Areas with the strongest growth are Kerikeri South and Puketotara. For Māori, areas of strongest growth will be Moerewa and Kaikohe.

*Includes Kawakawa, Kerkeri, Bay of Islands as well as Kaikohe township and surrounding areas.