Māori population increasing fast in Whangārei

Māori will be 32% of the population by 2030. The Māori population will increase to 34,736 people, up from 31,019 people in 2023. This increase is 3,717 more people and accounts for 46% of the total population increase.

Figure 1 Age and sex distribution Whangārei Māori 2018 projection to 2030

The proportion of Pakeha will decrease from 61% to 59%. Pakeha and others (who are not Māori, Pacific or Asian), will increase in size by just 1,875 people over the same period.  

Figure 3 Age and sex distribution Whangārei, all ethnicities, 2018 projections to 2030

Without new arrivals, the population will age and decline as birth rates fall. By 2043 the natural increase turns negative, indicating more deaths than births. Looking ahead to 2048, we anticipate a shortage of babies. Our community will continue to evolve into a more diverse melting pot as migration contributes to the population growth. Whangarei is expected to grow from 101,820 people in 2023 to 109,930 people in 2030.

Figure 2 Projections of factors of population growth

More homes are needed to meet demand. As the population reaches 109,930 people, this will mean an extra 3,000 homes or more than 500 per year are needed. Current forecasts of construction projects fall well short, indicating continuing pressure on rental costs. Areas with projected strong population growth are Waipu, Tikipunga, Marsden Bay and Ruakaka. For Māori the strongest growth areas will be Tikipunga North and Kamo East, while for Pakeha and Others (than Pacific and Asian) will be Waipu Rural and Marsden Bay.