September 2025

Labour market fragile

The labor market in Te Tai Tokerau remains fragile, with job availability varying significantly across districts. Currently, there are 2,199 fewer jobs in the region compared to 2024. The losses primarily occurred in Whangarei and the Far North, whereas Te Kaipara experienced job gains (refer graphs below).

This increase in Te Kaipara is likely indicative of robust performance in the agriculture sector. Overall earnings rose by $34 million year-on-year, with Te Kaipara seeing an increase of 7.6%, the Far North at 2.5%, and Whangarei at 1.8%.

The lowest job participation rates are amongst rangitahi aged 15-19 and older workers aged 65+, with a significant drop in the 20-24 age group, reflecting current trends in NEET (not in employment, education or training). Notably, the Te Tai Tokerau NEET rate consistently exceeds the national average, ranking amongst the highest regions in Aotearoa/New Zealand.

Rangitahi who are unemployed or not engaged in training for extended periods may experience diminished self-esteem, declining mental health, an increased likelihood of engaging in risky behaviours and overall negative health outcomes.

Long-term unemployment (12+months) disproportionately affects rangitahi, Māori, Pacific Peoples and those with lower qualifications. This is borne out by recent unemployment statistics which shows for individuals with no qualifications, the unemployment rate is around 9%, while the general unemployment rate is 6.2%. In stark contrast the unemployment rate for those with postgraduate qualifications is just 2.0 to 2.5%. And the Māori unemployment rate in Te Tai Tokerau has recently surged by 14.3%, meaning  4,000 people are seeking jobs - the highest number since 2017. 

The impacts of a recession can prompt our youth to seek better opportunities elsewhere, diminishing our labor pool and creating an obstacle when the economy recovers and limiting any expansion. This phenomenon, often referred to as hysteresis or long-term scarring, ultimately diminishes our productivity and standard of living. This could explain why Te Tai Tokerau has historically faced slower recoveries, such as after the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The uncertain future of our tertiary training sector, including Northtec looks to be further limiting opportunities for our rangitahi who may have to move from the whenua to study.  

Many low-skill positions face a significant risk of automation and AI*, leaving unqualified workers with limited options for alternative roles. However, jobs that require interpersonal skills, physical presence, and cultural understanding—such as healthcare aides, early childhood educators, construction workers, and service roles—are likely to persist. Those with formal training and credentials are likely to be preferred. Even for roles that were historically learned on the job, there is a risk of credential inflation, which can act as a barrier to entry, further excluding unqualified applicants. This situation is likely to exacerbate unemployment or underemployment among vulnerable groups, particularly Māori, Pacific Peoples, and youth.

Actions from Government that have helped in the past has included targeted wage subsidies (e.g. apprenticeships), and public infrastructure building. There are also local and employer-led actions that assist including;

• Supporting mid-career upskilling through flexible training (e.g. carers progressing to enrolled/registered nursing).

• Reduce reliance on temporary migrant labour by building local workforce capacity (see graph).

• Expand school-to-work transitions with apprenticeships and work-based learning for rangatahi.

• Strengthen partnerships between iwi, NGOs, and public/private sectors to deliver community-based employment initiatives.

*AI and automation are not wholly detrimental; these tools can democratize access to knowledge and resources (such as coding and design). They can enhance the productivity of less-qualified workers by increasing their output instead of replacing them.