August 2025

Life Expectancy: A Health Status Indicator and Beyond

Te Tai Tokerau Maori exhibits the lowest life expectancy outcomes for both tane and wahine. However, since the 2005-2007 period, there has been an increase of 3.1 years for men and 2.5 years for women. And the gap in life span has narrowed from 4.7 years in 2005-2007 to 4.1 years in 2022-2024.

But despite Tai Tokerau having similar high levels of deprivation compared with Gisborne and the Hawkes Bay (as an indicator of a relative standard of living), the gains in our tane life expectancy (3.1 years) remain significantly lower than those in Gisborne (4.7 years) and Hawkes’ Bay (3.6 years). For wahine, the difference stands at 3.9 years and 3.0 years, respectively.

Why life expectancy matters between regions?

A shorter life expectancy usually reflects higher rates of preventable illness, chronic disease, or injury. It can highlight unequal access to healthcare or differences in quality of care.

Life expectancy is strongly shaped by income, education, employment, and housing. And regional differences can reveal inequities — for example, more deprived areas often have shorter life expectancy.

If one region has a significantly lower life expectancy than another, it signals inequality in opportunities to live a long and healthy life. Comparing regions helps identify where gaps are, and where to act to improve health and wellbeing.

Advocating and reminding policymakers to target resources where they are needed most - in Te Tai Tokerau remain a priority. It also means we need to continually look at interventions that could work better for our whanau, changes like Te Ao Marama, Enabling Communities and Te Pae Oranga.

Economic recovery is anticipated to be slow and gradual. The much-anticipated data for the June quarter GDP will not be available until September 18.

Although the NZ Activity Index is not a direct predictor of GDP, it provides insights into certain leading indicators. For the June 2025 quarter, it showed a 1.8% increase in activity compared to the decline of 0.9% in the June 2024 quarter. Positive trends were noted in the manufacturing index (includes dairy manufacturing), grid demand, and both heavy and light traffic movements. However, electronic card transaction (EFTPOS Credit Card) activity and job advertisements decreased, alongside a rise in jobseeker numbers.

The Reserve Bank's "Kiwi GDP" nowcasts predict a contraction for the June quarter, leading to a cut in the OCR, now at 3.0%, which has resulted in reductions in mortgage rates—offering some relief to some household budgets.

Many commentators and economists are adjusting their forecasts downward, emphasizing a more gradual recovery. Domestic inflation is expected to decrease as consumers exhibit cautious spending habits and heightened price sensitivity, which is understandable given the high costs of essential living expenses such as food, petrol, and electricity. The risk of imported inflation remains elevated due to geopolitical uncertainties, likely driven by increased costs for imported petrol and energy, as well as supply chain disruptions.

In recent years, NZ has fuelled growth through high migration and population gains, but net migration has sharply declined, with 70,600 Kiwis leaving in the year leading up to April 2025. Rising living and housing costs, along with job losses, are believed to be pushing people abroad.

Unemployment has reached 5.1% in the March quarter, with an even higher rate of 6.2% in Tai Tokerau. The number of individuals on Jobseeker benefits is also rising, now at 12,525, a steep increase since 2016. The combination of unemployment and the escalating cost of living significantly impacts the well-being of whanau.

On a positive note, the export sector—particularly in agricultural products such as meat and dairy—shows promise. Global commodity prices remain high, and it is thought that US tariff shocks for NZ are unlikely to reverse the sector's fortunes. However, risks persist as our other trading partners, including the UK and China, respond to even higher US tariffs, potentially dampening their own economies and reducing demand for NZ products.