Our Shared Future:
Social and Economic Perspectives
July 2025
Meth Use Increases
Our GDP now heavily depends on agriculture and primary industries, previously Marsden Point activities dominate our economy. Agriculture accounts for 10% of the total GDP, which includes dairying (3.5%), sheep and beef farming (2.1%), and forestry and logging (1.7%). The outlook for the dairy sector appears promising, driven by high global dairy prices assisted by reduced milk production in China. The anticipated milk payout and lower interest rates are expected to enhance farm profitability. (Ministry of Primary industries, 2025 Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI)).
Interestingly, our Māori whanau are more often employed in sectors such as construction, manufacturing, healthcare and social services, education and training, and retail trade, rather than in agriculture, forestry, and fishing. This is notable, considering that the agricultural sector represent the largest asset base for Māori in Te Tai Tokerau. (Te Ōhanga Māori 2023 BERL).
Impact of geopolitical risks
Economic forecasts suggest modest growth is anticipated, with no significant recovery expected in the next few years. Geopolitical risks, particularly those arising from Trump's tariffs, are reportedly causing businesses to delay investments until a more stable outlook materializes.
Impact on Job Market
As a result, the job market is becoming increasingly insecure, leading to higher unemployment rates—currently at 6.0%, compared to New Zealand's rate of 4.9% (March 2025 year). These figures represent the highest rates since mid-2017. Additionally, around 35,000 workers have reported being underutilized, expressing a willingness to work more hours if available.
Infometrics forecasts predict that unemployment will peak in the June 2025 quarter, indicating a challenging winter for families, but a somewhat improved summer in late 2025 with a slight moderation in unemployment by 2026.
Challenges for Rangatahi
Young people (rangatahi) are particularly affected by a weak labour market, with job opportunities for those aged 15 to 24 declining by 6.5%, whereas other age groups have seen a decrease of only 0.9%. Many rangatahi are employed in sectors such as retail, hospitality, and construction, which are all vulnerable to tightened household budgets. (Statistics NZ Filled Jobs March 2025)
Inflation update and its impact on whanau
Inflation, or the rise in prices, has moderated and is currently within the Reserve Bank's target range of 1-3%. Although it's at the upper limit of 2.5%, the Reserve Bank has chosen to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR)—which affects mortgage interest rates—unchanged.
For families, essentials continue to see price increases. Even minor hikes in food, fuel, and rent can significantly affect households with low incomes. In the March 2025 quarter, food items, particularly milk, cheese, and butter, accounted for the largest share (34.1%) of the 2.5% overall price increase. This was followed by rent (8.3%), household energy costs such as electricity and gas (8.2%), and petrol (16.9%). Additionally, the cost to register a vehicle has risen by $25.
This increase is tracked by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the general price level across the economy. However, it does not capture how inflation affects various demographic groups, such as those relying on benefits or superannuation. A more accurate measure would be the Household Living-Cost Price Index (HLPI), but it won't be released for 2025 due to ongoing updates to the data weights. In 2024, the cost of living for beneficiaries was 1.3% higher than the CPI inflation level, while for Māori households, it was 2.3% higher.
See TTTP website for more information https://tttp.co.nz/demographics/the-real-cost-of-increased-living-expenses
Both demand and supply is increasing and the street level pricing is declining for meth according to the NZ Drug Intelligence Bureau.
This is highly likely to be underestimated in Te Tai Tokerau as the testing does not include non-reticulated water system - samples are only collected from water treatment plants at Kaitāia, Kaikohe and Whangarei. This covers between 60-70% of the region’s population
According to a 2024 study, heroin and fentanyl still relatively uncommon in NZ but ketamine use was on the increase.
The cost of drug use costs Te Tai Tokerau at least a billion per year
Premature deaths due to drug use, such as overdoses and car accidents is the ultimate highest cost that can never be truly estimated. An attempt suggests that a life is worth about $49 million from the loss of a person’s contribution to our society including GDP, tax and GST.
The cost can also be the loss of a quality of life for the drug user, and includes expenses related to hospital admissions and the economic impact from individuals being unable to work. This is conservatively estimated alongside a loss of life at $546K per kilogram of meth.
The harm does not stop at a personal level but spills to the whanau, hapu, iwi and wider community. This harm can include, resources diverted to treatment of addictions, crime to fund drug purchases and the business of drugs diverting resources away from those activities that do pay GST and tax to Government to fund better education and health as an example. Total community harm is estimated at $502K per kg of meth.
Te Tai Tokerau uses about 106 kilos per year (based on waste water testing and average over last 4 quarters) resulting in a estimated but conservative cost of $57m in personal costs and $53K in community costs - over a billion dollars per year.