Children at Risk
This section examines risk factors within the Te Tai Tokerau population, drawing first on the Oranga Tamariki predictive risk model and then on data relating to Reports of Concern (ROCs) provided by Oranga Tamariki. The final part of the section uses data supplied by Oranga Tamariki—while it remains available—that replicates the reporting previously required under Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989, which has since been repealed. The 7AA data and analysis focuses specifically on Tamariki Māori, who continue to be disproportionately represented within the child protection and state care system.
Understanding risk factors is critical for supporting tamariki and whānau early and reducing the likelihood of children entering state care. Across Whangārei and Te Kaipara, there are 30,996 tamariki under 18, and an estimated 18.5% exhibit early risk factors—higher than the national average of 14%.[i]
Tamariki-level risk factors
Previous report of concern to Oranga Tamariki – In Whangārei and Te Kaipara, 12.8% of children have had an interaction with Oranga Tamariki before turning five, compared with 8.2% nationally. In the Far North, this increases to 14.8%.[ii]
Receiving the Unsupported Child Benefit – 3.5% of children in Whangārei and Te Kaipara receive this benefit, higher than the NZ average of 3.0%, and 4.3% receive it in the Far North.[iii]
Participation in a Family Group Conference – Tamariki involvement across Te Tai Tokerau is lower than the national average (591) and has declined over the last eight years, with 314 participating in 2024/25.[iv]
Multiple Emergency Department visits or inpatient admissions for injuries – 32.3% of under-fives in Whangārei and Te Kaipara have had a potentially avoidable hospitalisation, slightly higher than the national rate of 30%; in the Far North the rate is 31.6%[v]
School disengagement, low qualifications, or multiple school changes – Only 51.2% of children attend school regularly in Whangārei and Te Kaipara, below the national average of 58.4%; in the Far North this falls to 42.1%. Around 9.4% of students move school more than twice in a year, suggesting potential housing instability, compared with 6.0% nationally, rising to 15% in the Far North.[vi]
Parental or sibling mental health, substance-use needs, or involvement with Corrections – 13.9% of people in Whangārei and Te Kaipara access mental health services, higher than the NZ average of 12.7% but lower than the Far North at 15.7%. Drug offences in Northland are marginally higher at 2.9% compared with the national average of 2.8%.[i]
Benefit dependency – 16.4% of the population in Whangārei and Te Kaipara rely on a benefit, above the national rate of 11.4%, and 23.6% in the Far North.[ii]
Living in social housing – There are 1,692 households in Whangārei and Te Kaipara, and 731 in the Far North. Housing Register numbers show 591 households waiting in Whangārei and Te Kaipara (down from 807 in 2022), and 390 in the Far North (down from 528 in 2024).[iii] See the Housing chapter for commentary on eligibility changes.
Frequent address changes – reflected in multiple school changes noted above.
Larger sibling groups or teenage pregnancy – linked to increased care contact.
Living in areas of high deprivation – 65% of tamariki in Whangārei and Te Kaipara live in areas ranked 6–10 on the NZ Deprivation Index, compared with 51% nationally; in the Far North this rises to 80%.[iv]
By understanding these risk factors, services can target support where it is most needed, intervene early, and work alongside whānau to strengthen resilience, maintain connections to culture and community, and reduce the risk of harm. This approach ensures Tamariki are supported within their whānau and communities whenever possible, rather than entering state care.
Family-level risk factors
Children in State Care
Under the Oranga Tamariki – Ministry for Children Act 1989, a child or young person is defined as being “in need of care or protection” or taken into stare care if, among other grounds:
they are suffering, or likely to suffer, serious harm; or
the parents/caregivers are unable to care for the child.
However, the inquiry into Abuse in State Care Inquiry[i] makes clear that the system—when children are removed from families and placed in state or institutional care—did not always protect children, and in many cases made things worse through neglect, abuse, and disconnection from family/whānau/culture.
The Inquiry highlights that the historical care system frequently suffered from inadequate oversight, accountability, and a culture of safety, resulting in children being placed in care without adequate support or alternatives.
Given this context, along with the elimination of Section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989, which previously required the CE of Oranga Tamariki to establish, monitor, and publicly report on outcomes for Tamariki Māori—and acknowledging that Tamariki Māori are significantly over-represented in these cases—we aim to track, analyse, and publish any emerging trends or patterns in the data. Oranga Tamariki/Ministry for Children has provided data for Te Tai Tokerau while it remains accessible, however not all measures that were included in previous 7AA reports can be included, as the data is no longer collected or available. [ii]
Reports of concern
Members of the public and agencies that work with tamariki and rangatahi—such as schools, police, and health organisations—can contact Oranga Tamariki to report concerns about a child who may be experiencing ill-treatment, abuse, or neglect.
Once a report of concern is made to Oranga Tamariki, an initial assessment is made to determine if further action will be taken or is required (referred to as FAR) or if it will be referred to other services (another agency, iwi, or social services) for a response. Alternatively, Oranga Tamariki may decide that no further action is required (referred to as an NFA).
In the Whangarei and Te Kaipara areas community engage with Oranga Tamariki in a shared decision-making model (a triage process called Tēpu) as part of the pathway to the devolution of child protection services. The project is part of the state funded ‘Enabling Communities” initiative to radically transform the state- community relationships. For this reason, we have included patterns, trend, and statistics on the triage categories – FAR and NFA.
This section focuses on the number of tamariki for whom Reports of Concern (ROCs) have been lodged with Oranga Tamariki, rather than the total number of reports. This distinction is important, as changes in reporting practices—many of which have occurred in recent years—can significantly influence reported volumes and obscure comparisons over time. Oranga Tamariki has published a paper outlining these changes and their impact on the data for 2024/25.[i]
After a sustained decline in the number of tamariki with ROCs since 2013/14, 2023/24 marked a turning point, with 292(9.5%) more children with reported concerns. This upward trend continued in 2024/25, with a further increase of 14.2%, representing 479 additional tamariki and rangatahi with reported concerns. This pattern broadly mirrored national trends, where a 17.5% increase was observed across New Zealand (see graphs below).
Further action required (FAR) and no further action required (NFA)
The community follow up on the NFA category, by contacting whānau to offer assistance, which they may voluntarily accept. This matters because multiple reports over time are not neutral. Oranga Tamariki’s own Practice Centre recognises that cumulative harm increases the risk levels, even when each single report seems minor, and that patterns of repeat reporting can trigger escalation into resource-heavy assessments and investigations.[i] Meanwhile, for Tamariki, repeated exposure to “low-level” harm steadily erodes resilience and mana, often compounding into complex trauma later in life.
Nationally, the pattern of multiple reports is increasing, meaning more children and whānau are cycling through with the same concerns without resolution. Oranga Tamariki data show that in December 2024, 8,800 reports of concern were received, with 79.5% being re-notifications—up from 76% in December 2023. This highlights a concerning system dynamic; more repeat reports, more and elevated cumulative risk for Tamariki, and more downstream demand, often requiring critical and urgent responses from OT.
In stark contrast, during the prototype operation of the local Enabling Communities approach—the Tēpu—the proportion of re-reports reduced (Keddell et al., 2025, p. 27). Rather than adding volume to the front of the statutory system, the Tēpu model appears to interrupt the re-notification cycle by meeting need earlier and closer to whānau.[ii] And most importantly reducing trauma and harm for Tamariki and whānau.
The variability in the data can be seen when comparing 2023/24 with 2024/25. During this period, the number of tamariki with reports of concern increased by 12.4%, while the number assessed by Oranga Tamariki as requiring further action decreased by 10.3%. At the same time, the number of cases classified as requiring no further action increased by 88.1%. These cases were either referred to partnered responses (such as Education, Health, iwi, and community social service providers) or, in Whangārei and Te Kaipara, supported through the Tēpu and by community partners.
Reports of concern are not evenly distributed across Te Tai Tokerau. Nearly three in five tamariki with reports of concern (59.3%) live in the Whangārei and Te Kaipara area, reflecting the larger population and service footprint. The remaining cases are split almost evenly between Kaikohe (19.8%) and Kaitaia (19.4%).[i]
Patterns differ, however, when looking at what happens after a report is made. Kaitaia has the highest proportion of tamariki for whom Oranga Tamariki takes no further action (24.5%), followed by Whangārei and Te Kaipara (21.6%), with Kaikohe lower again at 17.2%. This suggests meaningful variation in how concerns translate into statutory involvement across the rohe.[ii]
Both Kaitaia and Kaikohe have a higher proportion of tamariki Māori, broadly reflecting the population make-up of these areas. In contrast, Whangārei and Te Kaipara show a higher incidence of Pacific children among reports of concern, pointing to different community and demographic dynamics.
The North is often seen as a bi-cultural community, but its population is more diverse than it appears. Investing early in culturally responsive, community-led programs for Māori, Pacific, and other local populations can help prevent risks early, reduce unnecessary statutory intervention, and ensure Tamariki and whānau get the right support, in the right place, at the right time.
Family Group Conference FGC
While reports of concern (ROC) tell us where risk is emerging, monitoring family group conferences (FGC) tells how the system chooses to respond. Monitoring these together helps tell us if the child protection system in Te Tai Tokerau remains whānau-centred, proportionate, and focused on prevention rather than crisis.
FGCs are grounded in the principle that whānau are best placed to make decisions for their own Tamariki when given the right information and support. Whānau are given protected time to kōrero together, drawing on their own strengths, tikanga, and relationships, to develop a plan that keeps Tamariki safe, connected to whakapapa, and supported to thrive. They bring together tamariki, their whānau, hapū or wider family, alongside professionals, to collectively address concerns about a child’s safety and wellbeing.
The role of Oranga Tamariki and other agencies is to share concerns, provide resources, and support the plan agreed by the whānau. FGCs reflect a commitment to rangatiratanga, whanaungatanga, and mana tamaiti, and seeks to prevent unnecessary separation of tamariki Māori from their whānau, culture, and whenua wherever possible.
From a peak of 443 in 2021/22, the number of Family Group Conferences (FGCs) conducted for individual Tamariki in the rohe has declined to 314 in 2024/25 — a pronounced downward trend representing a 29.1% reduction.
There is only a weak correlation between reports of concern that progress to further action and the conduct of FGCs. The Independent Children’s Monitor (Aroturuki Tamariki) reported in 2025[i] that, based on community engagement in 2023/24, FGCs were not consistently being carried out as intended. Key barriers included:
‘Financial restrictions, time pressures, limited whānau involvement, and FGCs being held in Oranga Tamariki offices. Sometimes whānau and professionals feel their voices aren’t heard. Agencies may struggle to agree on a plan despite whānau involvement, and there can be a lack of services and supports to refer to. As a result, plans are not always followed through.”
(Outcomes for tamariki and rangitahi Māori and their whānau in the Oranga Tamariki system. A report on the performance of the Oranga Tamariki system (May 2025))
FGCs are legislated hui designed to develop plans addressing the needs of Tamariki, including securing support from government agencies for learning, mental health, and other essential services. This is particularly important in Te Tai Tokerau, where many children live in areas of deprivation and socio-economic disadvantage.
However, the Independent Children’s Monitor (Aroturuki Tamariki) noted that if a child is not considered at risk of entering state custody, many social workers do not proceed to an FGC and instead convene informal, non-legislated hui ā-whānau. While this informal hui may involve and be preferred due to its informality by whānau, they do not hold Oranga Tamariki accountable, provide dedicated funding, or always reliably secure the services Tamariki desperately need.[iii]
In Care
The number of Tamariki in state care in Te Tai Tokerau has declined for six consecutive years, reflecting national trends. These figures are shaped not only by the number of children entering care but also by those aging out, which is why annual entry rates are a critical indicator.
In the 2024/25 year, entries into care have risen sharply—up 51.51% compared with the previous year. Nearly half of all Tamariki in state care in Te Tai Tokerau during this period were new entries with the bulk (82.4%) being Tamariki Māori; 5.6% Māori-Pacific and 12% NZ Euro/Other.[i]
[i] Data and information supplied by Oranga Tamariki/Ministry for Children on request through the Official Information Act 19Feb 2026.
Tamariki Māori make up 81% of all children in state care in Te Tai Tokerau, reflecting the region’s significant—though not majority—Māori population and the ongoing inequities in pathways into care.
The increase in Reports of Concern (ROCs) involving Tamariki Māori contributed most to the overall 14.2% rise in 2024/25 in Te Tai Tokerau. This pattern may reflect wider socio-economic pressures, including economic downturn, unemployment, and rising living costs, which tend to disproportionately impact Māori whānau.
While Tamariki Māori accounted for the largest increase in absolute numbers (an increase of 277), the fastest proportional growth was observed among children identifying as Māori–Pacific. This suggests different growth dynamics across population groups and highlights the importance of prevention and support responses that are responsive to the distinct realities of whānau and communities across the region
Abuse and Neglect
A substantiated case of abuse generally means that following a further action required (FAR) decision, and an investigation or assessment by Oranga Tamariki, there is sufficient evidence to conclude that a child has experienced abuse, neglect, or harm. This does not necessarily mean that a criminal offence has been proven, that the case proceeded to court, or that a conviction occurred. Nor does it always result in a child being removed from their caregiver or involve an admission of responsibility. Rather, substantiation is an administrative finding based on professional assessment standards and statutory thresholds, which can be influenced by changes in policy, practice, and reporting frameworks.
Substantiated cases are often assumed to represent more serious situations of harm. However, research indicates that the difference between substantiated and unsubstantiated cases is relatively small, and substantiation alone has limited predictive value for subsequent re-reporting, recidivism, or other later outcomes. For this reason, trends in substantiated harm are interpreted alongside changes in FAR rates and other system responses in this section
The Whangarei and Te Kaipara district has the highest proportion of emotional abuse findings (65.6%) – this is slightly larger than the proportion of the region’s population that resides in this area (about 63%). Kaikohe has 22.7% and Kaitaia has 11.7%.
Over the past year there was an 8% increase in the number of substantiated emotional abuse findings across Te Tai Tokerau – Kaikohe offset this overall increase by falling 15.4% and Kaitaia offset it by falling 12.8%, while the Whangarei/Te Kaipara accounted for 128.3% of the region increase. The increase for Whangarei and Te Kaipara was 16.8%.
Neglect is emotional neglect where a child does not receive the comfort, attention or love or they are left without someone to care for them. Neglect also includes physical neglect – where the health, shelter, food, clothing, and educational needs are not meet. This also includes allowing truancy, and failure to enrol in education.
Emotional harm is the largest proportion of substantiated cases in Te Tai Tokerau – 42.2%. This category includes ‘ongoing exposure to whanau or family violence’, alongside patterns of degradation, constant and vitriolic criticism, or repeated negative comparison to others; deprivation of contact with people significant to te tamaiti; corrupting, exploiting, or actively scaring and threatening te tamaiti; a significant period of denying access to cultural, faith or other associations that sustain the sense of normality, identity, and self-esteem for te tamaiti.[i]
Substantiated cases of emotional abuse against children in Te Tai Tokerau increased 12.4% in the year to 2025, alongside a 14.2% increase in the number of Tamariki with reports of concern. Over a similar period, Police victimisation data indicates a 3.78% increase in assaults by a family or partner including ex-partners.[ii
Repeat victimisation
The average number of substantiated abuse findings per victim provides an indication of whether harm is becoming more concentrated among repeat victims or distributed across a larger number of children. Changes in this measure can reflect both underlying patterns of harm and changes in system responses or reporting practises.
These results are not official statistics. They have been created for research purposes from the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), managed by Stats NZ.
While the total number of victims has decreased from 2023 to 2024 year, the Repeat Victimisation Index has increased for both Te Kaipara and Whangarei area, suggesting that harm is becoming concentrated among a smaller group of Tamariki who experience repeated substantiated incidents (see RVI matrix below). This highlights the need for targeted interventions to address persistent risk in high need whānau.
For the Far North area including both Kaikohe and Kaitaia Oranga Tamariki sites, the total number of substantiated abuse victims and the Repeat Victimisation Index have decreased. This suggests that fewer Tamariki are experiencing substantiated harm, and those who do, are less likely to experience repeat incidents, indicating a positive trend in harm reduction and a reduction in concentrated risk among Tamariki.
| RVI Matrix | RVI decreasing | RVI increasing |
|---|---|---|
| Victims decreasing | Positive trend: less overall harm and less repeat harm | Concentrated risk: fewer children affected, but repeat harm amongst high-risk Tamariki |
| Victims increasing | Harm spreading: more children affected, but fewer repeats | Growing harm: more children affected and repeat incidents increasing |
| December 2025 Year (Te Tai Tokerau) | Count (Distinct Tamariki) | % of Tamariki Māori |
|---|---|---|
| In custody of the CE of Oranga Tamariki | 290 | – |
| In custody of the CE of Oranga Tamariki (Tamariki Māori) | 256 | 88% |
| Section 78 with notice | 3 | – |
| Section 78 with notice (Tamariki Māori) | 3 | 100% |
| Section 78 without notice | 45 | – |
| Section 78 without notice (Tamariki Māori) | 45 | 100% |
Section 7AA reporting[i]
Section 78 as a measure of preventing entry into care or custody.
Section 78 custody orders can be applied for in two ways:
with notice where application is served on the parent(s) before it is granted by the Court
without notice where parent(s) are not informed of the application before it is granted by the Court
Placements as an indicator of tikanga-approach to Tamariki Māori
| Description(Te Tai Tokerau) | As at January 2026 | As at December 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of Tamariki Māori with an open care placement placed with Māori, non-kin or non-whānau caregivers in Te Tai Tokerau | 37.6% | - |
| Percentage of Tamariki Māori with open care placement living with whanau caregivers in Te Tai Tokerau | 62.4% | - |
| Percentage of Tamariki Māori in care placed with at least one other sibling in Te Tai Tokerau | - | 81% |
Only 8% of Tamariki Māori across New Zealand were able to live with Māori caregivers (non-kin or whānau) in the year ending June 2025. Te Tai Tokerau has a significantly higher proportion of Tamariki living with Māori caregivers (non-kin or whanau) (37.6%) as at January 2026. It points to many who are willing to step forward and a strong sense of collective responsibility for Tamariki Māori in the region. The communities’ capacity to absorb and care for Tamariki is a strength and a community-based buffer against further harm and cultural dislocation of our Tamariki in state care. It is further testament to that capacity that the region places more sibling together than the New Zealand wide average (81% versus 75%). We acknowledge Oranga Tamariki sites in the region, who have successfully prioritised these placements. It is important to note that these statistics reflect whānau who became involved following intervention by Oranga Tamariki. We also acknowledge the many whānau who quietly care for whāngai tamariki and grandparents raising mokopuna, often with limited support and recognition, simply because it is the right thing to do for their whānau and communities.
Compared to the rest of New Zealand, the region does have a lower number of Tamariki Māori living with Māori (kin or whānau) – 73% versus 62.4%. This is not likely to reflect unwillingness, but rather high levels of poverty within the region, unstable housing for many, and previous justice and child protection histories that can affect eligibility.
Investing in iwi and Māori providers and organisations as a measure of shifting resources to communities
| Description(Te Tai Tokerau) | Year ended June 2024 | Year ended June 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Spend with iwi Māori providers | $17,818,671.68 | $15,095,948.23 |
| % change from previous year | - | -1% |
| Number of iwi Māori providers | 17 | 16 |
| % of contracted funding with iwi Māori providers | 52% | 51% |
The Hipokingia ki te Kahu Aroha Hipokingia ki te Katoa' (Te Kahu Aroha), by the Ministerial Advisory Board[i] recommended that decision-making authority and resources be shifted to communities. Progress against this intent is tracked through a target of 50% of funding being managed by partners. The most recent Section 7AA report produced by Oranga Tamariki shows that, across Aotearoa New Zealand, this figure stood at 33% for the year ended June 2024.[ii]
In the year to June 2025, Māori providers in Te Tai Tokerau received 3.6% of total contracted service funding ($423.26 million). This figure was reported by Oranga Tamariki to the Auditor-General as part of the inquiry into procurement and contract management.[iii]
This level of funding appears low relative to Te Tai Tokerau’s share of tamariki and service demand. The region has consistently accounted for between 6% and 7% of all reports of concern nationally since 2013/14. Similarly, tamariki in Te Tai Tokerau represent 6.7% of the national population aged under 18 (45,894 tamariki, based on Census 2023 and 2022/23 reports of concern data).
At this stage, the analysis is preliminary. Comparative data from other regions has not yet been requested, and time-series data is not available to assess trends over time. Further analysis is planned for the next iteration of this report in early 2027.
Support, strengthen and assist Tamariki, rangitahi and whānau to return home or transition into the community from state care
There are no youth justice residences in Te Tai Tokerau region. Young people from the region may be placed in one of the five youth justice residences across the country, depending on their legal status and individual needs. Oranga Tamariki advised that as of 21 January 2026, there are fewer than 10 rangatahi in youth justice residences who are associated with a Te Tai Tokerau, Oranga Tamariki site. As the number is low and may result in identification, to protect the privacy of individuals they were unable to provide the number. However, they did advise that 83% identify as Māori.
| Description(Te Tai Tokerau) | Te Tai Tokerau (As at 30 September 2025) | New Zealand (As at June 2024) |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of eligible Māori, and Māori-Pacific referred to a Transition Worker (up to 21 years) | 65% | 68% |
| Percentage of eligible Māori and Māori-Pacific offered to work with a Transition Worker (up to 21 years) | 71% | 73% |
Not all eligible rangitahi are referred to Transition Support Services (TSS) by social workers across New Zealand and particularly so, for rangitahi in Te Tai Tokerau (see table above). There is a sizeable group without a transition worker. Recent evaluations of the Transition Support Services (TSS) indicate that heavy workloads for social workers meant focus was on immediate safety issues and not transition planning. [i] This is supported by the numbers in table below with Te Tai Tokerau having the higher case loads and the lowest referral rate. Engagement by rangitahi, even when referred is also low.
| Region | Number of providers with transition contracts | # of contracted FTE with providers | # of number of eligible young people | Eligible young people per worker | Referral rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Te Tai Tokerau | 3 | 6.5 | 187 | 29 | 64% |
| Auckland | 8 | 35 | 759 | 22 | 66% |
| Waikato | 7 | 12 | 290 | 24 | 67% |
| Bay of Plenty | 8 | 13 | 199 | 15 | 72% |
| East Coast | 10 | 14 | 258 | 18 | 69% |
| Canterbury | 20 | 17 | 291 | 17 | 76% |
| As at 30 November 2025 (Te Tai Tokerau) | As at 30 June 2024 (last reported numbers for NZ) | |
|---|---|---|
| Percentage of Tamariki Maori, and Maori-Pacific, exiting an out-of-home placement in the previous 18 months, who then re-entered an out of home placement | 13.1% (114) | 20% |
| Age-Māori as at 30 November 2025 | Distinct entries in the last 18 months | Distinct re-entries | % of re-entries vs exits (Te Tai Tokerau) | % re-entries vs exits (New Zealand) as at 30 June 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | S | S | 0% | 7% |
| 2-5 | 22 | S | 5% | 15% |
| 6-9 | 24 | S | 8% | 30% |
| 10-13 | 24 | S | 8% | 32% |
| 14-16 | 28 | 7 | 25% | 32% |
| 17-18 | 7 | S | 29% | 20% |